The recent events in Japan will have future impacts on the US freight railroads. Disruptions in the global supply chain due to damage to plants in Japan, could translate into lighter container loadings for the West Coast.
In addition, shortages at US manufacturers could also result in lower traffic.
However, there is also the possibility of increased West Coast coal exports if Japan is forced to rely on their idle coal generation plants.
It is still too early to determine what the longer term impacts will be, but the situation bears watching over the next several months.
Each Thursday, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports the freight traffic results for the previous week which is the recognized "barometer" for how rail traffic is doing in North America.
Summary:
Today the AAR reported rail traffic gains for the week ending March 12, 2011, with U.S. railroads originating 292,164 carloads, up 1.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week was also up, totaling 216,828 trailers and containers, up 6.5 percent compared with the same week in 2010.
What it could mean? - Railroad Examiner
Eastern railroads probably suffered due to the flooding in the Northeast, while the Western railroads saw better weather. I'm expecting some impact to the Western Railroads next week due to the flooding/mudslides in the pacifc northwest which have effected traffic on the BNSF.
Freight traffic continues to show good year-over-year gains as the economy improves. This has been noted along the railroads as additional train traffic compared to the same period in 2010 and notably compared to the low traffic of 2009 being seen by railfans throughout the US.
Data from the AAR Report:
Twelve of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010. Those groups posting significant increases included: metallic ores, up 105.3 percent; pulp, paper and allied products, up 17.9 percent, and motor vehicles and equipment, up 17.7 percent. "The important to budget travel is to plan ahead. When it comes along to family trips, globetrotting, well-deserved holidays and/or going to see new locations we have never been before, the actuality of expense and budgeting is generally in the back of our mind. Considering and expending our travel budget correctly is a consideration for most families. Reducing expending and charges, while still enjoying your vacation to its fullest, is the key to guaranteed success and fiscal obligation. Your pocketbook and family will thank you! The thought behind saving money while journeying is simple: Even if your personal funds is extremely limited, you can still take a break and enjoy life! Simply put, life is just too short to never step out of the door or leaving the homestead! Also remembering that while traveling, regardless of whether on a price range or not, even the smallest of things can all add op to a big vacation or travel charge!..". The commodity groups reporting a notable drop in weekly traffic were waste and nonferrous scrap, down 13.7 percent and primary forest products, down 12.6 percent.
Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was down 2.8 percent compared with last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was up 4.2 percent compared with the same week in 2010.
For the first 10 weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 2,870,806 carloads, up 5.5 percent from last year, and 2,176,100 trailers and containers, up 7.8 percent from the same point in 2010.
Happy St. Patrick's Day and we'll see you next Thursday for the Railroad Examiner's commentary on the weekly numbers.
Source: AAR.org
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